Saturday, February 28, 2015

There’s a long way to go before Fed raises rates

The Federal Reserve may not be happy until it gets unemployment all the way down to 5.5%, if statements from central bank officials and other economists are an indication.

Up until recently, the U.S. central bank appeared steadfast on a benchmark of 6.5% before it began normalizing its target for short-term interest rates from the near-zero current level. The zero-bound has been in place since the darkest days of the financial crisis that exploded in 2008.

That commitment to concrete targets for policy change has changed recently, however.

The unemployment rate has been on a steady downward trajectory, though the October reading showed a slight uptick to 7.3%. But it has been doing so in great part due to the shrinking labor force.

FED: 'Safety net' on stocks shrinking?

BERNANKE: Irony of his forward guidance

BITCOIN: Cyprus university accepts it

At the same time, inflation has remained muted despite the Fed pumping $85 billion a month in liquidity under its quantitative easing bond-buying program.

So with actual job creation still fairly muted and inflation—at least as gauged through conventional government measures—well below the Fed's 2.5% warning sign, interest rates probably aren't going anywhere for years.

Bernanke said as much Tuesday in remarks at the National Economists Club annual dinner in Washington.

He warned against using the headline unemployment measure as a gauge because "many other indicators become relevant to a comprehensive judgment of the health of the labor market, including such measures as payroll employment, labor force participation, and the rates of hiring and separation.

"In particular, even after unemployment drops below 6.5%, and so long as inflation remains well behaved," he continued, "the (Fed Open Markets) Committee can be patient in seeking assurance that the labor market is sufficiently strong before considering any increase in its target for the federal funds rate."

Economists at Goldman S! achs have been monitoring the internal Fed analyses over what would constitute a safe unemployment rate, and said in a paper published Tuesday that the threshold is probably 5.5%. That analysis is influenced by two recent papers from Fed economists that concluded waiting for a lower rate would have greater economic benefits.

The Goldman analysis, from Sven Jari Stehn, said the Fed faces the challenge of not merely stabilizing the unemployment rate but also addressing the plummeting labor-force participation rate, which is at a 35-year low.

"Although our analysis is subject to significant uncertainty, our results suggest that taking into account adverse supply side effects--by aiming to normalize both the unemployment and participation rates--strengthens the case for lowering the 6.5% unemployment threshold," Stehn said. "Our small model suggests that the most desirable unemployment threshold in this case would be around 5.5%."

But the Fed risks its credibility by adjusting its targets.

Markets have been reacting to virtually every word that comes out of the Open Markets Committee. Investors want to know when the Fed will reduce the pace of its asset purchases, and when it plans on raising rates.

Though Bernanke is trying to dissuade markets from attaching too much importance to the unemployment and inflation thresholds, minutes released Wednesday from the October Fed meeting showed only grudging support for lowering the 6.5% guideline.

That could indicate a fight brewing internally that investors may not like.

Follow Cox on Twitter: @JeffCoxCNBCcom.

© CNBC is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Check into this Hotel Trio

Turnaround specialist George Putnam sees long-term potential in the hotel sector; the editor of The Turnaround Letter highlights three companies showing improving fundamentals.

Steve Halpern: We're here with George Putnam, editor of The Turnaround Letter. How are you today?

George Putnam: Fine, thank you Steve.

Steve Halpern: Each month in your newsletter, you look into a number of market sectors, looking for the best turnaround opportunities. You recently reviewed the hotel industry, where you see improving fundamentals. What's your overall outlook for the hotel sector?

George Putnam: Well, the hotel sector looks favorable because, while business travel, and in fact, all travel is improving (therefore, there's higher demand for hotel rooms), the supply of new hotel rooms has really been stagnant since the financial meltdown in 2008.

It remains hard to get financing for new hotel projects, so when you have a market with increasing demand and steady supply, that usually means higher prices for the rooms, which goes right to the bottom line.

Steve Halpern: Most of the stocks in this sector are structured as real estate investment trusts. How would that impact the decision for an investor looking at these selections?

George Putnam: Well, it means, not only can the stock price increase if the result improves, but a REIT has to pass through 90% of the earnings to the stockholders in the form of dividends, so you'll also see dividends increase as the results improve.

Steve Halpern: You would view this as a favorable group for income-oriented investors, as well as growth?

George Putnam: Yes.

Steve Halpern: Now, one of the positions that you've looked at is FelCor Lodging (FCH). Could you tell us a little about that?

George Putnam: Sure. Well, it grew fairly rapidly before the downturn in 2008 and didn't really have a great focus. With the new management team after 2008, they have sold off a lot of non-core properties and are focusing on more upscale properties and strong markets, and they've used the proceeds from asset sales to help the balance sheet. They have paid down a lot of high-priced debt, which also helps the bottom line.

Steve Halpern: Now, you've also looked at a company called Hersha Hospitality (HT). How are they involved in the industry?

George Putnam: Well, Hersha, again, has been refocusing its business. It was a little unfocused before. It had both a suburban and urban market, and it's recently agreed to sell the last of its suburban properties.

And it's used the proceeds from earlier sales to buy properties in some strong markets like San Diego and Miami. As a result of this transformation, it's a focused urban operator with properties in some of the best performing markets in the US.

Steve Halpern: Like the general real estate mantra, location is very important for these holdings.

George Putnam: Yes, location, location, location, as they say.

Steve Halpern: Now, another pick that you have is Sotherly Hotels (SOHO). Could you tell us about that company?

George Putnam: Sure. This is a small-cap name. Like many others in the industry, it had to struggle a bit from 2008 and has devoted most of its attention to getting its balance sheet back in order, and some of its existing hotels fixed-up and repositioned.

But it's now largely completed that and is on a much sounder financial footing, so they can go back to what they've always done well, which is buying somewhat troubled properties and fixing them up, and if they can successfully do that in this environment, I think it could really help results a whole lot.

Steve Halpern: Now, finally, just in terms of your time prospective for listeners who are looking at these ideas, you're not generally expecting these to turn around immediately, but you take a longer term view on where the sector and these companies are going, in fact, looking out sometimes over years.

George Putnam: Yes, that's right. It's very hard to predict how a stock will move in the short-term, but when you've got industry fundamentals going the right way, even a stock that's out of favor at the moment, eventually investors will see the merit in it, and the stock should do quite well.

Steve Halpern: Well, thank you very much for joining us today. We appreciate your time.

George Putnam: Thank you Steve.

Subscribe to The Turnaround Letter here...

The expert featured in this column, George Putnam, may or may not own positions in any investment vehicle mentioned here. The views and opinions expressed are his or her own.

Monday, February 16, 2015

Lear Corp: Who are You Calling Expensive?

Shares of Lear Corp. (LEA) have returned 66% including reinvested dividends. Has that run made Lear’s stock expensive?

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

That depends on whom you ask. For Deutsche Bank’s Rod Lache it has, despite the solid earnings numbers that have helped drive Lear higher. He writes:

Lear's Q3 EPS of $1.45 was meaningfully better than our $1.26 est. and cons. of $1.33. Looking at LEA's divisions, the Seating margin came in slightly better than we projected, at 5.4% vs. our 5.2% est. but still down vs. 6.1% in Q3'12. EPMS drove most of the upside with an op. margin of 10.9% vs. 7.5% in 3Q12 (including a 50 bp nonrecurring positive). LEA's overall corp. op. margin came in at 5.4% vs. our 4.7% est. While we were impressed by Lear's Q3, we are lowering our recommendation to Hold based on valuation.

Not so fast, says Citigroup’s Itay Michaeli. He writes: 

In our view, Lear's valuation remains appealing for two core reasons: (1) Lear sports structurally lower capex/sales vs. peers (< 3% vs. ~4+% for peers). That means that for a given EBITDA multiple, Lear will generate higher unlevered FCF than its peers, all else equal. Our 6.0x '14E EBITDA target multiple = ~8% unlevered FCF yield, including restructuring. That Lear's revenue is outpacing the industry while margins are expanding is evidence that capex is appropriately sized. We estimate Lear's '14 unlevered FCF yield is comfortably above peer average; (2) Lear's EPMS segment appears to have crossed the threshold to becoming a double-digit EBITDA margin earner with clear secular growth attributes. We think a 7.5x EBITDA multiple is appropriate based on public peers (Delphi (DLPH)) and past connector M&A. 

Shares of Lear have gained 0.2% to $77.32 at 2:24 p.m. on a day when most auto-part companies are not doing much of anything. Delphi Automotive, the big loser, has dropped 1.1% to $57.39, Johnson Controls (JCI) has fallen 0.2% to $42.94 and Borg Warner (BWA) has risen up 0.4% to $106.70. The big winner: Tenneco (TEN), which has jumped 3.3% $54.65 after reporting better than expected earnings.

Friday, February 13, 2015

The 8 Groups Capitalism Forgot: Holes in the Social Safety Net

Male trapeze artist catching man, low angle viewGetty Images For the historically minded, the political battles of the last few years may have induced an especially vertiginous bout of deja vu. After all, many of the big debates currently roiling our government -- including those over the minimum wage, health care, college tuition and unemployment -- are nothing new. For decades, politicians and pundits have hashed over these topics, arguing over the appropriate breadth and depth of America's social safety net. On Salon, Paul Buchheit offers an interesting rundown of government policies that hurt children, students, the elderly, wage earners, women, minorities, the sick and disabled, and the homeless -- a collection of constituencies that Buchheit calls "the eight biggest victims of America's predatory capitalism." Very succinctly, but with a great deal of solid evidence, he lays out his argument that, over the past few decades, the United States has de-invested from these groups ... with appalling results. There's a lot of room to disagree with Buchheit. Among other things, his categories have a great deal of overlap, and one could argue that he cherry-picks a great deal of his evidence. On the other hand, it's also hard to ignore America's recent attempts to balance the budget by slashing holes in the social safety net. Buchheit's article is a reminder that governmental "savings" rarely come without a cost -- and that the ones left holding the bill are often the people who have the most to lose.

States Where Homebuyers Pay Cash

As many as 40% of the homes sold in the U.S. in July were purchased in cash, up from 31% a year earlier, according to data published this week.

Rising interest rates are partly driving this uptick in cash sales, according to real estate data company RealtyTrac. Another reason may be the opportunity investors see in some markets. In some states, all-cash transactions made up a larger portion of sales than others. In Florida, nearly two-thirds of home sales were completed without a mortgage loan. Based on the RealtyTrac report, these are the states where the most homebuyers pay cash.

Click here to see the housing markets driven by cash

In an interview with 24/7 Wall St., RealtyTrac CEO Daren Blomquist explained that higher levels of institutional investing — rather than private purchases of families buying a home to live in — were the likely cause of the increased cash purchases in some of these states. This is because institutional investors almost always pay for homes in full upfront. Indeed, the majority of the states with the 10 highest cash purchases in July also had among the highest levels of institutional buying. In Georgia, which was sixth in the country for home cash purchases, 22% of all sales were to institutional investors, compared to a national rate of just 9%.

Many of the states with the most homes sold for cash are among the ones hardest hit by the housing crisis. Home prices in Florida, Nevada and Michigan plummeted 50% or more. Homes prices also are particularly low in some of these states. The median list price in Ohio was just $118,900 in July. This was more than $75,000 below the national median.

Blomquist explained that the decline in prices may be the reason for the higher cash sales in these states. "Both investors and regular buyers are seeing the most opportunity to jump in and buy, and are willing to use their own money," he said.

In many of these states, a large segment of home sales are "distressed," or homes purchased in foreclosure or owned by a bank. In Nevada, more than one in five homes sold in July were repossessed properties.

This is likely affecting the number of homes being purchased with cash in two ways. First, distressed homes can be bought at a significant discount — a median of just $52,000 in Michigan, for example. Second, "By nature, with distressed sales, besides the fact that it’s low-priced, when you buy a foreclosure property at the public foreclosure auction, in most states, you do have to pay cash there. No matter what the price, you do have to pay cash," Bloomquist added.

Based on data provided by RealtyTrac, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the 10 states where the largest percentage of homes sold in July were purchased with cash. RealtyTrrac also provided median list price, as well as data on bank-owned sales, short sales and institutional sales for the states and the largest metro areas. All data is as of July 2013.

These are the states where the most homebuyers pay cash.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Why It’s Getting Easier to Win New Clients

Maybe it’s the “taper tantrum,” wild markets, dysfunctional government or riots overseas—whatever the reason, advisors are confident clients need, and are looking for, help.

A new report from Russell Investments released Thursday found the “overwhelming majority” of advisors optimistic about client acquisition in 2013: 87% reported feeling optimistic about acquiring new clients and households.

This follows similar numbers for 2012: 86% of advisors acquired more clients than they lost in 2012, with nearly half indicating they brought on more than 10 clients or households.

The quarterly Financial Professional Outlook survey focused on client acquisition, the use of referrals to drive business growth, and the implications of an aging client base.

Top acquisition strategies for 2013 include receiving client referrals reactively (76%), referral prospecting through current clients (54%) and professional networking (43%).

Fully 32% of advisors say they believe clients are optimistic about the capital markets over the next three years—the highest proportion since the March 2011 FPO survey. Three-quarters (75%) of advisors reported that they, too, are optimistic about the markets.

“Many advisors are finding it easier to acquire new clients than it was just six months ago, as investors’ willingness to participate in the market is bolstered by strong recent performance,” Kevin Bishopp, director of practice management for Russell’s U.S. advisor-sold business, said in a statement. “Yet there is a finite universe of individual investors and a highly competitive environment for advisors. To differentiate themselves, advisors need to deliver a superior service and relationship experience, not just a product or portfolio.”

In addition to acquiring new clients, most advisors reported fairly high levels of client retention. The majority of respondents (55%) said they lost one to three clients in 2012, while only a quarter (26%) lost four or more clients. In identifying the primary reasons for losing clients, many advisors pointed to a cause beyond their control: a client’s death.

“It’s important for advisors to consider the composition of their books of business when establishing an acquisition strategy. If an advisor has many clients in the decumulation phase of retirement, when income distributions begin to exceed investment returns, it can be important to seek out younger clients in their peak accumulation years to help maintain a sustainable business,” Bishopp said. “One rule of thumb is that for every client over age 70, an advisor likely needs one or two clients in their fifties who are accumulating at an increasing rate. This can be an important consideration when thinking about the types of new clients to seek out.”

He also pointed to the “generational risk” clients in retirement can pose, or the danger that an advisor may not retain the assets transferred to an investor’s beneficiaries.

“When thinking about client acquisition, it’s also important that advisors consider establishing relationships with their clients’ children and heirs,” Bishopp concluded. “If they can demonstrate their value and engage these emerging prospects, they can put themselves in a strong position to continue to manage inherited assets and drive referrals amongst the next generation of investors.”

---

Check out Lessons From Losing a Client by Mike Patton on AdvisorOne.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

The Federal Reserve and Volatility: More Bark Than Bite

If you thought last month was volatile, you were on to something. News that the Federal Reserve could soon reduce its support for the economy sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) barreling up or spiraling down by triple-digit margins in 16 of the month's 20 trading sessions. But at the end of the day, the reaction to the Fed's announcement turned out to be far more bark than bite.

Let me be clear: June was anything but docile for investors. The average daily movement of the Dow was 136 points. This was the highest average since the year 2000, and it handily beat out the runners-up (2012 and 2008), which came in at an average of 115. In addition, as I alluded to, a full 80% of the trading days closed either higher or lower by a triple-digit margin.

Year

Average Daily Move (Points)

No. of Trading Days

No. of Triple-Digit Moves

% of Triple-Digit Moves

2013

136

20

16

80%

2012

115

21

9

43%

2008

115

21

11

52%

2002

102

20

12

60%

2010

101

22

10

45%

2000

97

20

10

50%

2011

95

22

9

41%

2006

80

22

6

27%

2007

79

21

7

33%

2001

75

21

7

33%

2009

67

22

5

23%

2003

66

21

5

24%

2004

48

21

1

5%

2005

42

22

4

18%

Source: Yahoo! Finance

If one were to stop here, it'd be tempting to conclude that last month was the most volatile June on record, or at least since the turn of the century. But, as you may have guessed, there's more to the story.

Take a look at the following table. By these measurements, June was actually a comparatively pedestrian month. Average daily volume was the second lowest in the past 14 years. And it was in the middle of the pack in terms of both the average daily percentage movement and the aggregate change (in absolute points and percentage) between the beginning and the end of the month.

Year

Average Daily Volume

Average Daily Movement

Total Point Movement

Total Movement (%)

2006

3,149,845

0.73%

(18)

(0.16)

2002

2,891,860

1.06%

(682)

(6.87)

2008

2,528,548

0.94%

(1,288)

(10.19)

2009

2,510,945

0.78%

(53)

(0.63)

2007

2,489,343

0.59%

(219)

(1.61)

2003

2,375,167

0.73%

135

1.53

2001

2,326,814

0.69%

(410)

(3.75)

2005

2,283,355

0.40%

(193)

(1.84)

2010

2,246,218

1.00%

(363)

(3.58)

2004

1,957,671

0.46%

247

2.42

2011

1,762,027

0.79%

(155)

(1.24)

2000

1,726,040

0.91%

(74)

(0.71)

2013

1,494,224

0.91%

(206)

(1.36)

2012

1,422,186

0.92%

487

3.93

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Now, this isn't to say that there weren't individual exceptions last month. UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH  ) , for instance, was up by approximately 5% over the course of June. This has been a particularly hot sector of late given the ongoing developments in health care. As my colleague Dan Caplinger pointed out, last April, the government had to delay a central component of Obamacare. And this past week, it did the same with a second component -- to read more about this, check out Dan's take on it here. Both moves give insurance carriers like UnitedHealth more time to figure out how to comply with the legislative overhaul.

On the downside, alternatively, shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) plummeted by more than 10% over the same time period. The problem in this regard is the same one that gold stocks like SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEMKT: GLD  ) are facing -- for an interesting take on why so many investors fell for the gold bubble, click here. That is, commodity prices are falling as investors and traders come to the realization that a long-assumed wave of inflation simply isn't materializing. Thus, because Alcoa's fortunes are largely a function of aluminum prices, which have been falling, well, you can do the math.

These performances aside, the overall lesson here is that it sometimes pays to look at the facts behind the media's hysteria. Was June a trying month for investors? Sure. But, at the end of the day, it really wasn't all that different from any other June.

If you're on the lookout for high-yielding stocks, The Motley Fool has compiled a special free report outlining our nine top dependable dividend-paying stocks. It's called "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." You can access your copy today at no cost! Just click here.

Monday, February 9, 2015

Do You Trust the Earnings at Owens & Minor?

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Owens & Minor (NYSE: OMI  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Owens & Minor generated $258.4 million cash while it booked net income of $105.7 million. That means it turned 2.9% of its revenue into FCF. That doesn't sound so great.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Owens & Minor look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With questionable cash flows amounting to only 4.4% of operating cash flow, Owens & Minor's cash flows look clean. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 2.1% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from changes in accounts receivable, which represented 5.5% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Can your retirement portfolio provide you with enough income to last? You'll need more than Owens & Minor. Learn about crafting a smarter retirement plan in "The Shocking Can't-Miss Truth About Your Retirement." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Owens & Minor to My Watchlist.

Sunday, February 8, 2015

The Fresh Market: Great Business, Premium Price

Similar to its larger, more well-known peer, The Fresh Market (NASDAQ: TFM  ) has traded at lofty valuations, riding the wave of the organic-food boom of the past several years in the United States. Though it's a well-run company with attractive growth prospects, the grocer suffers from market hysteria. This became more apparent over the last 12 months as slowed growth frightened investors paying nearly 30 times earnings. Now, it looks as if all is forgotten as the company posted an impressive earnings release. How does the company's valuation measure up today? Let's take a closer look at earnings to find some clues.

Earnings recap
For the first quarter of 2013, The Fresh Market brought in top-line revenue of $366.6 million -- a near 13% increase from the prior year's quarter, yet short of analyst estimates (approximately $373 million). The reason for the big gain was maybe the best reason for a grocery store: big comparable-sales growth. Moving down the income statement, gross profit improved a staggering 14.8% to $129.3 million, driven (again) by same-store sales growth.

On the bottom line, the company beat the Street by bringing in $0.46 per share -- a 14.6% gain over the prior year and $0.02 higher than consensus estimates. Margins improved slightly across the board, based on favorable accounting measures and merchandise margins.

Same-store sales grew by 3%, coming off the back of a 1.9% gain in the prior-year's quarter.

All in all, it was a strong quarter, and if you step into a Fresh Market, you can tell these guys have a great formula. It's homier than Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFM  ) , with a slightly lower price point on some items. Unfortunately, though, a great company is not always a great stock. Is The Fresh Market still too hot to touch?

Looking down the road
Encouragingly, The Fresh Market 's management bumped guidance to reflect traffic increases at the stores. Same-store sales growth is now projected at 2.5% to 4.5%. Investors can expect earnings to grow more substantially in the back half of the year, yet EPS guidance remains unchanged (and represents about 19% growth over the prior year). The company plans to open up to 22 new stores throughout the year, and with a long growth runway ahead, as well.

Again, there is no doubt this is an A-plus operation, but what are we paying for it?

The stock currently trades at 26 times forward one-year earnings. In the mind of Peter Lynch, that means (assuming no more growth thereafter -- obviously not the case) your investment will take 26 years to pay back. Now, of course The Fresh Market will keep growing, but this should give investors some context. There are, without doubt, investments with stronger economics than this one, when using the Lynch P/E.

The Fresh Market isn't alone in its premium pricing. Whole Foods trades at 30 times forward earnings, and arguably doesn't have as large a growth platform (by store count) as The Fresh Market. It is, though, the gorilla in the space.

For some grocery store industry context, Safeway (NYSE: SWY  ) trades at under 10 times earnings and is in a mature, slow-moving state. The company is in the midst of renovating stores in hopes of finding some growth. While not nearly as sexy an investment (and riddled with debt), Safeway is priced to move off the shelves.

This author tends to be a broken record when talking about hot stocks, but I feel The Fresh Market is simply too expensive to own, even after its several month sell-off. That said, if this business ever goes on sale, I am backing up the truck.

It's hard to believe that a grocery store could book investors more than 30 times their initial investment, but that's just what Whole Foods has done for those who saw the organic trend coming some 20 years ago. However, it may not be too late to participate in the long-term growth of this organic foods powerhouse. In this premium report on the company, we walk through the key must-know items for every Whole Foods investor, including the main opportunities and threats facing the company. So make sure to claim your copy today by clicking here.

Saturday, February 7, 2015

Boeing's Dreamliner -- and Its Stock -- Are Flying

U.S. stocks started the week off on a strong note, as the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) both gained 0.7% and 0.1%, respectively. That was enough to push the S&P 500 to a record high, with the index recording gains in six of the last seven trading sessions. That consistency on the upside is also present when we widen out the timescale: With one day left in April, the S&P 500 is ahead 1.6% on the month, which means it is well positioned to record its sixth consecutive monthly gain -- its longest streak since Sep. 2009.

Somewhat unusually, in light of stocks' buoyancy, the VIX Index (VOLATILITYINDICES: ^VIX  ) , Wall Street's fear gauge, rose today by 1%, to close at 13.71. (The VIX is calculated from S&P 500 option prices and reflects investor expectations for stock market volatility over the coming 30 days.) This may be the result of hedging activity by investors in the run-up to the Fed's rate-setting meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday

Flying high!
What an extraordinary turn of events! I never expected to hear that a Boeing (NYSE: BA  ) 787 Dreamliner would be up and flying -- in a scheduled commercial flight, not a test flight -- before the month of April was out. Yet that's exactly what happened on Saturday, as Ethiopian Airlines flight 801 took off from the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa en route to Nairobi, Kenya. (It did arrive safely, in case you were wondering.)

On Sunday, Japanese airline ANA, which is the largest operator of 787s, with a fleet of seventeen, conducted a test flight, two days after Japanese regulators lifted a flight ban on the aircraft. ANA said it may resume commercial flights in June.

Regulators worldwide grounded the Dreamliner in January, following two incidents in which the aircraft's advanced lithium-ion battery unit overheated, producing smoke and catching fire.

I'm puzzled that regulators have approved what looks like an aggressive flight resumption timetable, particularly if one considers that the cause of the problem has not been identified. Instead, Boeing has proposed a series of modifications, including a different battery containment enclosure, which were approved by the FAA on April 19.

The market, on the other hand, seems to have discounted this best-case scenario from the outset, despite the massive headline risk the company faced:

BA Chart

Source: BA data by YCharts.

The shares barely went into negative territory and, although they did underperform the market through February, they now have the S&P 500 eating their dust. While that price behavior seems extraordinary to me, it suggests two things: First, the market had a better appreciation for this story than I did, and, second, the stock began the year significantly undervalued.

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Friday, February 6, 2015

Mike Khouw Sees Unusual Options Activity In CBS Corporation

Related CBS Barron's Recap: The Bull Will Be Back The "New Normal" Equals More Downside For Netflix Binge Watching, Sports at Center of Fox Bid for Time Warner (Fox Business)

Mike Khouw spoke on CNBC's Options Action about an unusually high options activity in CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS). He said that 6 times average daily call options volume was traded in the name on Monday.

Khouw explained that the biggest trade of the day was a sale of 60,000 contracts of the December 55 strike calls for $2.10. The trader is assuming that the stock won't trade above $57.10 or approximately 5 percent higher at December expiration. CBS Corporation is reporting earnings on November 5.

Posted-In: Mike Khouw Options ActionCNBC Options Markets Media Trading Ideas

© 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Wednesday, February 4, 2015

U.S. Hiring Slightly Down in May

In May the U.S. economy added 217,000 jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report released on June 6. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3%, averaging 6.52% for the year seasonally adjusted

According to the BLS Establishment Survey Data jobs in the Government sector were basically unchanged from April to May adding 1,000 jobs to the sector overall. Local Governments added 11,000 workers while State and Federal Government both decreased workers by 5,000.

ADP's National Employment Report released on June 4 showed a slight downward trend in hiring in May. Nonfarm payroll jobs in Private sectors increased 179,000. May's increase was below the previous three month average of 198,000 and slightly below the previous six month average of 183,000.

According to ADP, the Service-providing sector continued to add the greatest majority of jobs overall with an increase of 150,000 or 0.15% from April. At 0.15% the Service-providing sector increase was slightly lower than the previous three month average increase of 0.18%.

Goods-producing employment also increased 0.15% in May. Goods-producing jobs increased to 19.036 million adding 29,000. In the Goods-producing job sector nonfarm payrolls increased 0.11% in April and 0.15% in March.

U.S. financial markets were up for the week following the employment data releases. The S&P 500 added 1.27% for the June 6 week with an increase of 0.46% on Friday, June 6. The S&P 500 continues to remain above 1,900 with a June 6 close of 1,949.44.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was also up following the June 6 week's employment data releases. The index added 1.24% for the week and closed at 16,924.28 with an increase of 0.52% on Friday, June 6. Year to date the DJIA has gained 2.23% with Industrial stock Caterpillar continuing to lead index returns increasing 21.69%.

About the author:JulieYoung789Julie Young is a Chicago-based financial journalist with nine years of experience in the financial services industry. She primarily writes article publications on financial market news and economic trends. Julie holds a Master of Science degree in Finance from Boston College and a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from the University of Arkansas.

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

J.C. Penney's Friday Pop -- Is It Time to Get Into the Shares?

The lowest weekly initial jobless claims figure in seven years was not enough to lift U.S. stocks on Thursday, with the benchmark S&P 500 and the narrower Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) down 0.9% and 1%, respectively. Unusually, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC  ) was less volatile than the former two indexes, losing just 0.8%. In company-specific news, it appears that disappointing results from Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT  ) and Kohl's this morning weighed on the retail sector today, including J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP  ) , which fell 2.8%. But J.C. Penney shares will make that up -- and more -- tomorrow, as the shares surged by nearly a fifth in today's after-hours session on better-than-expected first-quarter results. Is it time for investors to take a look at this turnaround story?

On the numbers: J.C. Penney beat Wall Street's expectations for revenues and earnings per share, as the following table demonstrates.

Currently 0.00/512345

Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes)

 

Actual/ Year-on-year growth (decline)

Analysts' c onsensus estimate

Revenues

$2.8 billion

6.3%

$2.7 billion

Earnings-per-share

($1.15)

(27.2%)

($1.25)

Source: J.C. Penney, Thomson FN

A same-store sales increase of 6.2% is impressive compared to its larger (and more stable) rivals – U.S. same-store sales at Walmart were flat, for example. However, this is partially a reflection of the challenges J.C. Penney faces and, consequently, greater volatility in its operating results.

Nevertheless, the company's outlook for the full year was pretty upbeat, including a mid-single-digit increase in same-store sales, significantly improved gross margin versus 2013, and free cash flow at breakeven. Moreover, the company appears to have warded off the risk of a cash crunch with an increased credit facility of $2.35 billion.

Where does that leave investors?
In early February when J.C. Penney announced its first instance of quarterly same-store sales growth in two-and-a-half years, I nevertheless wrote that individual investors ought to avoid the stock. Since the publication of that article on Feb. 4, the stock is up by nearly two-thirds – and that doesn't even include the pop the shares will experience tomorrow.

Was I wrong? In a very basic sense, the answer is, "Obviously, yes." In hindsight, it's now clear that the pessimism surrounding the stock was culminating as I was writing the article (literally so -- the shares put in their 52-week low of $4.90 on the publication date.) However, it's worth reviewing the rationale I invoked at the time, which had nothing to do with trying to second-guess investor sentiment:

Turnarounds are very difficult to pull off. Turnarounds in the brutally competitive retail sector are even more challenging, and the results can't always be maintained -- at which point, another turnaround becomes necessary. J.C. Penney belongs in the "too hard" pile – investors would be better off focusing their limited time and resources on outstanding, durable businesses.

Furthermore, one decent quarter does not diminish the challenges still ahead for J.C. Penney. The company isn't expected to earn a profit this year or the next; meanwhile, larger, profitable competitors -- bricks-and-mortar and online -- aren't exactly standing still. J.C. Penney may provide market-beating returns for investors who are either lucky, or a combination of knowledgeable and dedicated (or all three), but I continue to think the shares are generally unsuitable for individual investors.

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Are You Collecting Data You Will Never Use? Why?

BKKG0N Magnifying glass highlighting stock quotes in business section of newspaper. Magnifying; glass; stock; business; section; Alamy We all understand that companies collect information on our behaviors, our shopping patterns and the like. But we collect data about ourselves, too. The problem is that we're not analyzing much of it. And we're missing a big opportunity to improve our lives and our finances. A friend was recently asking me about Fitbit. Most of my friends know that I'm a huge fan of Fitbit, those little pedometers on steroids, that help you monitor the number of daily steps you take and things like calories burned, food consumption, weight, sleep patterns and other health statistics. I love the service and what it tells you about your health. My friend was curious about how it can tell if you got a good night's sleep. I told him that it's a cool feature. Monitoring Your Sleep Is All the Rage A lot of very cool smartphone apps, in addition to Fitbit, monitor your sleep patterns. Studies have shown that there is an optimal time to wake up at your lightest phase of sleep based on your REM sleep patterns, which ebb and flow throughout the night over the course of a few hours each. One app, Sleep Time by Azumio, provides you with stunning graphs and a ream of data about how well you slept the night before. But I told my friend that I don't really know what to do with all of the information. Should I go to bed earlier? Should I stop watching television in bed before I fall asleep? A lot of questions arise from having all of this data at your fingertips. And the same is true with our finances. We often go to great lengths preparing our family's monthly written budget or tracking our net worth. Many credit card companies provide incredible pie charts and graphs about your spending. So what should we do with all of this new information? Are we wasting most of it? How can we put it to work for us instead? Make Some New Habits with the Data "We take the time to construct a detailed budget or use an online budgeting tool, but few of us ever make concrete changes that better our financial lives," says Grant A. Webster, a certified financial planner with AKT Wealth Advisors. The simple answer is that you have to act on the information. Start with small steps. If you analyze your budget and realize that you're spending too much in many categories, pick one to tackle in the first month. For example, if you realize that you're eating out too much in restaurants, make it a goal to skip going out for a month. An old wives' tale says it takes 21 times repeating something to make it a habit. While there is truth in repetition forming a habit, the timespan is different for everyone. The same is true for making a new financial habit. After a month of tackling one category in your budget, you should look towards the next category your struggling with in your overspending. Like eating an elephant, take tiny bits and help reinforce building new habits. Neil Maxwell, a fee-only financial planner with Button Financial in Denver, says that building a new habit should be easy if it is something that you truly want to do. If you are collecting data and not acting on it, maybe you don't need to collect it in the first place. Otherwise simply recognizing that you want to make a change in your life is a powerful force that can help you change. Find an Accountability Partner to Help If the sheer amount of information available overwhelms you, Rupert recommends that you seek help from a trusted financial planner or a life coach. (Similarly, people looking to lose weight join a group like Weight Watchers International (WTW) or hire a personal trainer to help them). Have you sat down with your spouse to discuss your finances? Many couples make this classic mistake. My wife and I have quarterly meetings to discuss how our family's net worth is growing, what we need to focus our investing on and where we are overspending in our budget categories. We are collecting a lot of data about our lives. Whether it is how many steps we take, how well we sleep at night, or how closely we are following our family's monthly budget, you should scrutinize and act on the data you collect. Do you collect a lot of data that you don't use? How do you transition form simply collecting the information to acting on it?

Sunday, February 1, 2015

U.S. stock futures trade quiet, eye Ukraine

Stocks fell slightly at the open on Wall Street Wednesday after a report showed businesses added a lower-than-expected 139,000 jobs in February.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 0.1% and the Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 0.1%. The Nasdaq composite index was flat.

Payroll processor ADP said Wednesday that businesses added 139,000 jobs last month, up from 127,000 in January. But January's figure was revised sharply lower from an original estimate of 175,000. Economists expected ADP to report 158,000 additional private-sector jobs, according to a consensus forecast

The ADP numbers cover only private businesses and often diverge from the government's more comprehensive report. The U.S. Department of Labor releases its own employment report Friday. Economists believe that the U.S. will report that employers generated 145,000 jobs in February.

Investors were also awaiting on a report on the service sector due Wednesday morning.

The drop comes a day the Standard & Poor's 500 index surged to a new record high on perceived cooling tensions in Ukraine.

UKRAINE: Russia's Putin appears to blink

Overseas, European markets were trading slightly lower. Germany's DAX index was down 0.2% and France's CAC 40 fell 0.1%. Britain's FTSE 100 index was down 0.5%.

Across Asia, regional traders are focusing on the start of the National People's Congress in China for signs of the direction of the Chinese economy and growth targets. The Chinese economy remains critical for region growth.

The Shanghai composite index fell 0.9% to 2, 053.08. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gained 1.2% to 14, 897.63. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong dipped 0.3% to 22,579.78.

CHINA: Pledges to keep hold of 7.5% growth rate

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 added 1.53% to close at a record 1,873.91. The Dow rose 227.85 points, or 1.41%, to 16,395.88. The Nasdaq composite rose 74.67 points, or 1.75%, to 4,351.97.

TUESDAY: Stock markets bust past big round numbers

Contribu! ting: The Associated Press

Stocks fell slightly at the open on Wall Street Wednesday after a report showed businesses added a lower-than-expected 139,000 jobs in February.