Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Wall St. fired up about gun maker Smith & Wesson

Gun manufacturer Smith & Wesson jumped 18% in early Wednesday trading, a day after reporting sharply higher earnings and bright sales forecasts.

Shares are up $2.16 to $13.96. The Springfield, Mass.- based maker of handguns and semi-automatic rifles bucked forecasts of slower industry growth, posting third-quarter sales of $146 million, up 7% and a 42% rise in earnings from the year-ago quarter.

CEO James Debney says sales and earnings for the handgun and rifle maker's 2014 fiscal year, which ends April 30, will be higher than Wall Street estimates.

Investors bailed on Smith & Wesson last month after rival Sturm, Ruger posted fourth-quarter sales below Wall Street expectations and said 2013 sales fell 20% from 2012.

Smith & Wesson has about 17% of the $2 billion U.S. handgun market and a 7% share of the $2.1 billion "long gun" market, according to company filings.

Sturm, Ruger is up about 3% to $65.30,

Overall sales of guns and ammunition soared following the 2012 movie theater massacre in suburban Denver and school shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., largely on fears of tighter gun control measures.

Both Sturm and Smith & Wesson say they plan to stop selling most new handguns in California, which now requires semi-automatic weapons to have serial numbers stamped in gun chambers so bullets can be easily traced by law enforcement.

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Monday, March 10, 2014

Don't Look Now, But Axxess Unlimited is Rolling Again (AXXU)

Even if you're one of the few reading this now, odds are good that you'd still never heard of Axxess Unlimited Inc. (OTCMKTS:AXXU) until the beginning of February. Prior to that, trading in AXXU was thin and uneventful. The evidence? Prior to February 4th, the average daily volume was less than 10,000 shares per day, and had been stuck right around the $0.20 mark since the middle of last year. Since February 4th, though, things have changed for the better. Since then, volume has been considerably stronger, and Axxess Unlimited shares have finally woken up and decided to forge ahead.

The sudden spike in interest and volume begs two questions: (1) What happened, and (2), will AXXU shares keep chugging like they did in February? The answers are (1) nothing in particular, and (2) probably.

First things first. Axxess Unlimited is.... well, it's not a simple explanation. In rudimentary terms it's a marketing company that specializes in the use of digital technologies. In other words, its clients come to AXXU in an effort to build their business in a variety of ways, including online. The company also manages the backbone of ignition interlock systems... the technology that requires some drivers to breath into a breathalyzer before the vehicle can be started.

None of that, however, prompted the sharp increase in the stock's trading activity as of February 4th. No, most likely the sudden buzz here stemmed from the company's press release published on January 16th that its interlock device patent would also cover ignition interlock devices looking for evidence of marijuana usage.

Given this year's enormous rise of chatter - and some, albeit limited - legalization of medical as well as recreational marijuana - enforcing DUI laws as well as keeping tabs on previously-convicted offenders is the obvious ancillary need. Axxess Unlimited has a patent-protected method for doing that.

The obvious question then is, what took so long for the market to catch on? The PR was published in mid-January, and that didn't impact the stock at all. Then two weeks later, it takes off? The market just happened to have an "aha" moment two weeks later? While that explanation may slightly oversimplify things, yeah, that's basically it. It took someone a couple of weeks to put two and two together, then publicly put the idea out there, at which time enough other traders took the ball and ran with it.

With all of that being said, though the start to the rally was a little odd, ill-timed, and wobbly, the way AXXU shares have behaved over the past month does indeed suggest more of the same bullishness is on the way.

Simply put, AXXU is now getting its confirmed second wind. The early February pop was nice, but too much, too fast. The early buyers paid the price for their indiscriminate jumping on the bandwagon beginning on February 10th, when Axxess Unlimited shares began to peel back. It didn't take long, however, for the bulls to find a footing and start climbing again. Better still, some key moving average lines ended up being the floor the stock needed, right when it needed a floor. The renewing bullishness over the past three trading days is rather clear on the daily chart below. The clincher is a subtle and almost imperceptible one - today's high of $0.375 pushes the stock above the recent ceiling of $0.37. The bulls are looking for a reason to get going here, and they may have just found it.

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