Heartland Express: Upgrade, Downgrade, I’m the One With the Trucks

Shares of Heartland Express (HTLD) rose today despite being cut by Stifel Nicolaus for valuation reasons.

Bloomberg News

Shares of Heartland Express have gained 50% this year, trumping the 38% rise in Con-Way (CNW) and the 29% advance in J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) but lagging Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL) and Swift Transportation (SWFT).

That big gain was enough for Stifel’s John Larkin say no mas and cut his rating on Heartland Express. They explain why:

Downgrading from Buy to Hold as the company’s shares appear fully and fairly valued. In fact, shares have recently traded through our 12-month fair value estimate of $19 (or 16.0x our 2015 EPS estimate of $1.15 plus ~$0.68 per share NPV of future cash tax benefits).

Rating change is primarily valuation based as well as from our view that most transportation equities are trading ahead of the still mediocre underlying freight market fundamentals.

BB&T’s Thomas Albrecht and team, who upgraded Heartland Express to Buy from Hold yesterday, explain why they think the stock will do just fine regardless of the economy:

Heartland is an intriguing play upon both a slow-growth economy and a rapidly growing one (along with tight capacity). Many carriers are only able to thrive in the latter environment. With HTLD we believe that even in a sluggish economy it has a self-generating EPS story through the integration and growth of Gordon. Q3’13, a very difficult quarter for TL carriers, saw HTLD post a 79.3% OR versus 83.3%.

The timing of the Gordon deal seems ideal, similar to the Great Coastal acquisition in mid-2002. Back then the TL market was stabilizing, but had yet to really take off, which occurred in the back half of 2003. Those 4-5 quarters allowed HTLD to assess customers, integrate operations, consolidate facilities and get ready for the next cycle. By the time that occurred HTLD was ready to take advantage of the capacity crunch.

Shares of Heartland Express rose 0.1% to $19.55 today, while J.B. Hunt Transport Services gained .1% to $77.27 and Swift Transportation advanced 0.1% to $22.20. Con-Way fell 0.5% to $38.79 and Old Dominion Freight Line dropped $52.47.