Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) plans to release its fourth quarter fiscal 2014 financial results on Thursday, June 26, 2014, at approximately 1:15 p.m. PT, following the close of regular stock market trading hours. Following the news release, NIKE management will host a conference call beginning at 2:00 p.m. PT to review results.
Wall Street anticipates that the Athletic Apparel maker will earn $0.75 per share for the quarter, which is $0.01 less than last year's profit of $0.76 per share. iStock expects NKE to beat Wall Street's consensus number, the iEstimate is $0.76.
Sales, unlike earnings, are expected to increase a healthy 9.6% year-over-year (YoY). Nike's consensus revenue estimate for Q4 is $7.34 billion; a lot more than last year's $6.7 billion.
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NIKE engages in the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories, as well as in the provision of services to men, women, and kids worldwide. The company offers products in seven categories, including running, basketball, football, men's training, women's training, NIKE sportswear, and action sports Under the NIKE and Jordan brand names.
While the iEstimate points to a bullish surprise, Canaccord Genuity analyst, Camilo Lyon believes the "Just Do It" company is going to fall short of the street's outlook. Lyon projects EPS of $0.72 – a $0.03 bearish surprise – on sales that match expectations. Along with disappointing earnings, the analyst says Nike will not raise it 2015 guidance.
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Missing earnings would be a rare event for the swoosh as profits topped forecasts 13 of the last 16 quarters. Only twice have earnings missed the mark with an on-target result mixed in. Typically, Nike's bottom line bypassed the consensus by 8.8% with a range of 2.7% to 14% more than projected. Meanwhile, the two misses were by -14.6% and -3.57%.
Now, if NKE's earnings were going to fall short of investors' expectations, Q4 is when the shortfall is most likely to happen. The June announcement has been the weakest of all quarterly checkups. It includes the -14.6% miss, the lone on-target result, the smallest bullish surprise and a $0.04 upside surprise for the last four fourth quarter results.
The good news is the two hits saw the stock climb by 4.5% and 9.8% in the days surrounding the fourth quarter release. However, the stock got turned upside down on the miss by -7.2% and -5.9% for hitting the target.
Overall: Nike Inc.'s (NYSE:NKE) history and iEstimate point to another small upside surprise; however, Q4 has been the most difficult quarter and Canaccord sees a miss coming. Earnings traders might be wise to proceed with caution.
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